Future Cycles: What It Will Take to Meet Global IVF Demand
Global demand for IVF is rising fast—a groundbreaking 2023 paper by Eduardo Hariton and other fertility experts estimate up to 20 million births annually compared to the 1 million delivered today. Discover how Conceivable Life Sciences is using automation to increase the scale of fertility care, support embryologists, and expand access to high-quality treatment worldwide.
In over four decades, IVF has helped bring about 10 million babies into the world. A stunning achievement, yes—but according to a 2023 paper published in Fertility and Sterility by more than 25 leading clinicians, it’s a fraction of what’s needed.
A Future That Requires 20 Million IVF Births Annually
When accounting for rising infertility rates, recurrent pregnancy loss, LGBTQ+ family-building, and expanded genetic indications, the estimated global demand is closer to 20 million IVF births per year. That’s a 20-fold increase from what the world’s fertility clinics are currently delivering.
To meet this need in the United States alone, over 800,000 IVF births annually would be required, equating to more than 2 million IVF cycles per year. Right now, we’re delivering only a fraction of that.
As the authors of the study wrote:
"To fulfill the true potential of assisted reproduction, the ART ecosystem needs to move from an IVF that helped conceive 10 million children over 4 decades to one that has the potential to help family building on the order of twice that number, per year."
Scaling a Billion Lab Processes
The implication? To reach this level of care, we would need to scale IVF to handle over a billion individual lab processes each year—from oocyte retrieval and sperm preparation to embryo culture and cryopreservation. As the IVF expert, reproductive endocrinologist, and Columbia University faculty member David Sable wrote in his influential essay about how IVF will be delivered in 25 years: “The total unmet need is much greater than the current system can accommodate.
Accomplishing this with today’s largely manual labs is simply not possible. This isn’t just a staffing issue. It’s a structural and technological limitation—one that cannot be solved by training more embryologists alone (read more on the embryologist shortage here). The field needs tools that support expertise while dramatically expanding capacity.
Where Automation Meets Expertise
At Conceivable, we’ve focused on solving this problem through automation that amplifies, not replaces, human expertise. AURA, our AI-powered automated IVF laboratory, is designed to standardize hundreds of time-sensitive procedures with precision and reproducibility.
Crucially, AURA doesn’t remove the need for embryologists—it transforms their role. With automated systems handling repetitive tasks, embryologists can oversee multiple workstations, ensuring quality control and devoting more attention to nuanced, high-stakes moments of care.
This shift allows us to scale without compromising quality. One senior embryologist, supported by AURA, may soon do the work that would traditionally require a team of ten.
“I’ve spent over 15 years in clinical and academic medicine, including time at Britain’s National Health Service, as a consultant in Clinical AI at the WHO, and as a Board Trustee at The King’s Fund,” says Dr. Stephanie Kuku, Conceivable’s Chief Knowledge Officer. “Across every role, one truth remains: healthcare doesn’t evolve through small adjustments—it leaps forward when systems are reimagined.”
That’s what Conceivable is doing for fertility care.
As we build toward a world where IVF is not luxury medicine but a widely accessible population health treatment, we must continue bridging technology, clinical insight, and policy-level impact. Automation is not a shortcut—it’s a strategy for making high-quality care universally available.
Why It Matters
40% of Americans live in fertility deserts, more than a day’s drive from a fertility clinic.
IVF costs average $20,000–$30,000 per cycle, putting it out of reach for most.
Clinics in underserved regions can’t recruit enough trained staff to operate traditional labs.
With automation, we can solve for all three: expanding geography, improving cost efficiency, and relieving clinical workforce pressures—without sacrificing care quality.
The Path Forward
The field of assisted reproduction is at a crossroads. We can continue treating IVF as concierge medicine for the few, or we can recognize that reproductive health is a public health issue that according to the World Health Organization impacts 1 in 6 people of reproductive age around the world. Meeting global need won’t happen with incremental improvements. It will require systems-level reinvention—something we’re building, step by step, at Conceivable.